The Big Short(fall): Colorado’s Upcoming Power Plant Closures and Planned Replacements
By Ethan Cornell* Introduction The data summarizing planned generation closures in Colorado signals a rapid and profound infrastructural transformation. The schedule details the planned retirement of 10 major coal-fired units between 2025 and 2031, collectively representing a loss of nearly 4,200 megawatts (MW) of nameplate capacity. The primary policy question this raises is whether the […]
Colorado Utilities Signal Pain Ahead for Energy Transition
Sample excerpt here…
Jake Fogleman Talks Natural Gas Saving Colorado’s Grid, Nuclear Energy on the Mandy Connell Show
Policy analyst Jake Fogleman joined the Mandy Connell Show on 850 KOA to talk about his article on Colorado’s dunkelflaute episode that saw fossil fuels save the stability of Colorado’s electric grid. They also discuss the pros and cons of nuclear power and why the state’s policymakers would be wise to consider championing it if they […]
Fossil Fuels Bail Out Colorado’s Grid Yet Again
Coloradans might want to begin brushing up on their German. At least enough to be familiar with the word Dunkelflaute, which roughly translates to “dark doldrums.” The term describes a weather pattern of low wind and limited sunlight that makes generating electricity from renewables nearly impossible. The event is relatively common in northern and western Europe during […]
Polis and Ganahl Spar Over Colorado Energy Policy
A conflict of visions was on display last night at the Colorado gubernatorial debate hosted by the Colorado Springs Gazette. That conflict was readily apparent during the discussion of energy issues facing Colorado. The section on energy runs from 39:48-45:12. Some highlights: -Republican candidate Ganahl called for encouraging local oil and gas production which she said […]
Energy and Land-Use: Rural Communities Continue to Spurn Renewables
Robert Bryce has a great piece in RealClearEnergy today on the latest land-use conflicts roiling planned wind and solar buildouts across rural middle America. From the piece: The hype about wind and solar energy keeps colliding with the hard reality of land-use conflicts. Nowhere is that more obvious than in Ohio, where 41 townships have […]
Fudging the Numbers: How Colorado Policymakers Mislead on Energy Costs
An increasingly common theme of the energy policy debate here in Colorado, particularly among renewables advocates, is the trumpeting of cost statistics purporting to show the affordability benefits of transitioning to wind and solar over legacy fossil fuel plants. Take, for instance, a recent statement made by Governor Jared Polis during a gubernatorial debate late […]
Don’t Let Anyone Tell You Nuclear Takes Too Long to Build
I’ve extolled the virtues of nuclear energy for its reliability, clean emissions, efficient land use, “just transition” potential, and energy security upside on several occasions. I’ve even documented why many of the fears surrounding nuclear and aversion to its deployment are often irrational and misguided. But one of the legitimate, good-faith critiques of nuclear is […]
China Ready to Ramp Up Nuclear Energy Production, U.S. Must Counter
There’s an arms race afoot in energy production, and the U.S. is at risk of falling behind. No longer are we able to rest on our laurels as the world’s number one producer of oil and gas. Thanks to global commitments to pursue a “clean energy transition”, countries like China have been able to establish […]
Energy and Land Use: A Sober Look at the Space Needed to Power the Future
Much of the conversation surrounding energy policy in Colorado these days has to do primarily with the emissions currently being produced and ways to continue reducing said emissions. The arguments over the role of various energy sources in getting to a decarbonized future are familiar at this point. But there has been comparatively little discussion […]
Energy Policy Center testimony on SB 44
Energy Policy Center analyst Michael Sandoval offers testimony on behalf of Senate Bill 44 before the House Committee on State, Veterans, and Military Affairs on March 2, 2015. Testimony as prepared: Testimony on behalf of SB 44 CONCERNING A REDUCTION IN COLORADO’S RENEWABLE ENERGY STANDARD March 2, 2015 State, Veterans, and Military Affairs Committee Mr(s). […]
The Limits of Wind Power
Environmentalists advocate wind power as one of the main alternatives to fossil fuels, claiming that it is both cost effective and low in carbon emissions. This study seeks to evaluate these claims.
Existing estimates of the life-cycle emissions from wind turbines range from 5 to 100 grams of CO2 equivalent per kilowatt hour of electricity produced. This very wide range is explained by differ- ences in what was included in each analysis, and the proportion of electricity generated by wind. The low CO2 emissions estimates are only possible at low levels of installed wind capacity, and even then they typically ignore the large proportion of associated emissions that come from the need for backup power sources (“spinning reserves”).
Wind blows at speeds that vary considerably, leading to wide variations in power output at different times and in different locations. To address this variability, power supply companies must install backup capacity, which kicks in when demand exceeds supply from the wind turbines; failure to do so will adversely affect grid reliability. The need for this backup capacity significantly increases the cost of producing power from wind. Since backup power in most cases comes from fossil fuel generators, this effectively limits the carbon-reducing potential of new wind capacity.
The extent to which CO2 emissions can be reduced by using wind power ultimately depends on the specific characteristics of an existing power grid and the amount of additional wind-induced vari- ability risk the grid operator will tolerate. A conservative grid operator can achieve CO2 emissions reduction via increased wind power of approximately 18g of CO2 equivalent/kWh, or about 3.6% of total emissions from electricity generation.
The analysis reported in this study indicates that 20% would be the extreme upper limit for wind penetration. At this level the CO2 emissions reduction is 90g of CO2 equivalent/kWh, or about 18% of total emissions from electricity generation. Using wind to reduce CO2 to this level costs $150 per metric ton (i.e. 1,000 kg, or 2,200 lbs) of CO2 reduced.
