Grace-Marie Turner writes:
will lead to a dramatic decline in employer-provided health insurance—with as many as 78 million Americans forced to find other sources of coverage.This disturbing finding is based on my calculations from a survey by McKinsey & Company. …In a study last year, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office, estimated that an additional 35 million workers would be moved out of employer plans and into subsidized coverage, and that this would add about $1 trillion to the total cost of the president’s health law over the next decade. McKinsey’s survey implies that the cost to taxpayers could be significantly more.
The McKinsey study, “How US health care reform will affect employee benefits,” predicts that employers will either drop coverage altogether, offer defined contributions for insurance, or offer coverage only to certain employees.
I’m no fan of the tax policy that favors employer-provided insurance. Real reform would remove this bias, rather than encourage tax-subsidized health plans.