This article first appeared at Townhall.com on July 27, 2024.

In a prior column, I described the political procedure of “sandbagging” and how the Democrat-media-Deep State oligarchy applied it to President Joe Biden.

Once the deed was done, the oligarchy had two choices: They could stick with Kamala Harris or—as I speculated—they could sandbag her in favor of a more electable candidate.

For now, it appears they have decided to hang onto Harris and see if she floats.

It must have been a tough choice. Harris is marred by all the Biden administration’s incompetent decision-making, as well as by incompetence all her own. She has a record of blabbering, cackling, and uttering ignorant and bossy things that make great fodder for opposition attack ads.

The oligarchy is very much aware of her vulnerable record: As reports have pointed out, they are now trying to scrub that record of damaging information.

So why stick with Harris? One reason is that cashiering her would have angered the “identity” voters who form the core of the Democrat Party—voters for whom skin color and gender take priority over qualities like ability, stability, personal popularity, integrity, vision, and wisdom. Another factor is the weakness of the Democrat bench: Their most obvious alternative candidate—California’s Gov. Gavin Newsom—has compiled a record that is an attack-ad-makers’ dream.

Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey seem not to have been interested. Other possible Democrat standard-bearers have little national name recognition.

Alternatively, now that Donald Trump has survived so much, perhaps the oligarchy has reconciled itself to another Trump presidency. I find this hard to believe. But if it is true, their idea may be to offer Harris as its sacrificial lamb while focusing their attention and resources on hamstringing a Trump presidency. They could do this by retaining control of the Senate, flipping the House, and/or erecting more firewalls to protect the bureaucracy.

The October Surprise

Another possibility is an October Surprise—an “emergency” designed to manipulate the election. The oligarchy famously did this in 2020 with the COVID epidemic, but the history of October Surprises goes back much further.

The administration of John F. Kennedy has obtained a certain “glow” over the years, including (for reasons I cannot understand) among Republicans.

Except among the fawning media, there was little glow at the time. By October 1962, the administration was so unpopular it appeared that Democrats would suffer substantial losses in the coming midterm congressional elections.

Then came the October Surprise.

Throughout most of 1962, the administration had downplayed clear evidence that the Soviet Union was placing nuclear missiles in Cuba aimed at the United States. But just a few days before the election, Kennedy “discovered” the missiles.

On October 22 he made a dramatic speech to the nation (which I still remember watching on television) that purportedly “stood down” the Soviets. Public opinion swung in favor of the Democrats, holding their congressional losses to a minimum.

Only later did we learn that the “stand down” was bunk. Actually, the administration made a deal. In return for partially-verified withdrawal of Soviet missiles from Cuba, they agreed to pull U.S. missiles out of Turkey. The administration excused the concession with the lame announcement that “we were going to do it anyway.

Since Biden has taken office, trouble has erupted in several places around the world. With so many flashpoints, the Democrats have a number to choose from in crafting a new October surprise.

Or They Still Could Change Their Minds

There is yet another possibility: The oligarchy still could change their minds and decide to dump Harris. If she doesn’t gain traction among the voters, look for the media to come up with damaging “newly discovered facts” about her.

True, it’s only three weeks till the Democratic National Convention. But, hey, three weeks is still three weeks! They were willing to defy the preference of 87 percent of their party’s primary election voters to ditch Joe Biden. Leftists have as little regard for formalities as for the “democracy” they purport to defend.

They could even make a switch to an entirely new candidate after the convention. This would have the advantage of possibly throwing the Trump campaign—geared first to oppose Biden and then to oppose Harris—into confusion. Stranger things have happened.

Trump and the Republicans have to be prepared for anything.