Devon Herrick at the National Center for Policy Analysis writes:

According to various estimates, there are 10 million to 13 million uninsured people who are already eligible for Medicaid – but not enrolled. When the individual mandate to obtain health coverage takes effect in 2014 [from HR 3590], many of the uninsured are likely to be swept up in outreach efforts. Although the cost of enrolling newly eligible individuals will be paid by the federal government, the cost of covering those previously eligible for Medicaid must be paid for under the current federal matching formula. Many states will find the cost of their Medicaid programs higher as a result. …

Low provider reimbursement rates make it more difficult for Medicaid enrollees to find physicians willing to treat them compared to privately insured individuals. States will bear much of the cost of keeping Medicaid provider fees at a level necessary to ensure enough physicians are willing to participate in the program. States with historically low reimbursement rates, such as New York state and New Jersey, will be hardest hit. In Texas, which is near the national average, the cost of maintaining higher Medicaid reimbursements will start at $500 million in 2016 – rising to $1 billion annually by 2023. …

Many of the newly insured under Medicaid will likely be those who previously had private coverage. … [I]t is reasonable to conclude that much of the increase in Medicaid rolls will be individuals who were previously privately insured, meaning the number of uninsured will not fall as expected.

Read more: Medicaid Expansion will Bankrupt the States.

See also “Expanding Medicaid: The Real Costs to the States” from the Heritage Foundation.

(Via the Galen Institute)