Jacob Sullum writes:
After Obamacare was enacted in 2010, the Congressional Budget Office projected that some 4 million Americans would choose to pay a penalty in 2016 rather than comply with the health insurance mandate. Testifying before the House Ways and Means Committee last week, Steven G. Bradbury, who headed the White House Office of Legal Counsel under George W. Bush, argued that number “will be considerably greater” once people understand they have no legal obligation to buy coverage. In fact, since the penalty is essentially unenforceable, it is possible that it won’t produce any revenue to speak of, which would make it an odd tax indeed.
With Avik Roy’s argument that the penalty (“tax”) for not buying government-approved insurance, it’s likely that will create an adverse selection death spiral in the non-group market, which will destroy it.